February 1

CandleWave – Action Suggestions for Tuesday, February 1, 2011

1. The Indexes

After a strong downmove such as we saw on Friday, it is normal for a bounce to develop.  It will usually retrace a portion of the downmove before prices head lower again.  In the Dow Industrials, that retracement could bring prices back to the neighborhood of 11940 or even 11975.  The odds are that Highs are already in, but the odds would be overcome if the recent Highs were to be surpassed.  If the Transports were to exceed 5140, that would set off alarm bells.  Moves below last Friday’s Lows would be a signal that the bearish warnings of last week’s Engulfing Patterns need to be taken even more seriously.

The VIX “sentiment Index” shot lower just after noon today, almost certainly as a result of a wave of Call buying; but the pressure eased off during the afternoon and the VIX wound up closing a little below last Friday’s Close.

I doubt that the bounces throughout the Indexes are complete.  The upshot is that I think we will see prices rise tomorrow; but whether it takes one day, or two or three or more, for this bounce to run out, prices should not surpass those of last Friday  “Should not” doesn’t mean “will not;” but the probability is that they will not.

1. Gold

Gold moved a little higher today in its upside correction, but could not hold on – and closed lower.  It should bounce higher than this before the correction is done – but we would not expect that Gold would move higher than 1393 before being thrown back and into a return of its decline.  Gold’s long term trend is Down.

1. Silver

Silver’s situation is much like that in Gold.  It moved up but was then thrown back.  It really ought to move higher in this correction, but it ought not surpass 29.49.  Silver’s long term trend is Down.

1. Crude Oil

We had said that Crude continued oversold.  That condition was partly cured by Crude’s bounce to 92.19, a $2.85 gain on the day.  I have no forecast for Tuesday.

……………….

FOREX

EUR-USD

We had expected to see a “Down” day in the Euro today, but we didn’t get it; and it is Up now in overnight trading.  While it remains overbought, there may be enough “unexpended bullish sentiment” to drive it still a little higher before topping and returning to its underlying bear trend.  Perhaps traders are concerned that if the result in Egypt goes the “wrong way,” the US will have to spend more of its treasure in protecting Israel and/or helping to get Egypt “back on its feet” after Mubarak departs.

GBP-USD

The Pound traded higher today, and is a little higher still, in overnight trading as this is being written.  “Egypt” may have something to do with it.  Even so, the Pound is overbought now, and appears to be heading into a High.

AUD-USD

The AUD was higher today too, although it still within the “sideways” pattern which has been in effect for 18 days now.  As the days go by, downward pressure builds up on the AUD.  I think it will turn Down not later than the time when Gold peaks and reverses its upside corrective bounce.

USD-CAD

My forecast of “sideways with a bias toward Up” was nearly right.  The USD closed Down 4 pips.  It is Down again now in overnight trading.  It is overbought, and should top and reverse downward soon.

………………

DOW 30  (DOW INDUSTRIALS)

Be long-term Short in this Index with “a toe in the water to the downside” in some fashion.

Longs should maintain tight safety sell-stops under all equities.

These appear tonight to be particularly susceptible to a downside reversal soon:

CVX

GE

HD

WMT – we had highlighted it as being overbought.  It fell on Friday and continued lower today.  We think there is more to the downside in WMT.

……

BAC is slightly oversold.  It is due for a bounce.

JNJ – we said it was oversold.  It still is.  It is aching for a bounce, and I think it is not far away.  I don’t see a reversal signal as yet; but JNJ could be a candidate for a quick upside trade.

KFT is poised for a bounce.

KO was slightly oversold, and bounced today.  It might continue.

XOM – be sure to trail it, at a minimum.

……….

COP is coming into a High.  Longs should be trailing advancing prices.

X is somewhat overbought.  Both Longs and Shorts should have safety stops in place.

…………………………………………………………

DOW TRANSPORTS

(The notes at Dow 30 apply here, too)

This appears to be especially vulnerable to a change of trend and reversal soon:

LUV is oversold.  It should bounce soon.

. . . . .

NSC – as we thought, it was indeed oversold.  It closed Up 81 cents today.  There should be more to the upside.

UNP is slightly oversold, and should continue the bounce which it started today.

…………………………………………………………

NASDAQ 100

(The notes at Dow 30 apply here, too)

These appear to be susceptible to a reversal soon:

AMAT

FLIR

ILMN

ISRG

KLAC

NVDA

………………

ATVI is oversold.  It could climb.

CELG is oversold.  It could climb.

EXPE is oversold.  Bullish “Hammer” Candlestick bar today.

INFY is oversold now.  It should bounce soon.

PCAR gained $1.67 today, and is back in midstream.

PDCO  – trail prices with a dynamic sell stop.

XLNX

…………………………………………………………………………

Respectfully submitted.

CandleWave, LLC

By William Kurtz, President

906 Whippoorwill Drive

Palm Harbor FL 34683 USA

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

EVERY INVESTOR MAKES HIS OR HER OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM.

THIS COMMUNICATION MAY CONTAIN INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS (WHICH DO NOT CONSTITUTE, ARE NOT INTENDED TO CONSTITUTE, AND ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS CONSTITUTING, “INVESTMENT ADVICE”), WHICH ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  IN ANY AND ALL EVENTS, THIS COMMUNICATION AND ALL OF ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS, COLLECTIVELY AND SEVERALLY, ARE SUBJECT TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS (“DISCLAIMER”) WHICH ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF THE CANDLEWAVE.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candlewave.com AND OF THE CANDELAABRA.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candelaabra.com, WHICH ARE INCORPORATED HEREIN BY REFERENCE.

January 31

CandleWave – Action Suggestions for Monday, January 31, 2011

1. The Indexes

You may already have seen these first paragraphs, which I distributed to all Subscribers on Friday evening.

………………………

Although it’s way too soon to tell with certainty, today may have been the day when the Great Rally of 2009-2010 finally ended.  That the market turned down at this time is not a surprise at all.  The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 had reached price levels which, from the standpoint of mathematics, were predictable (and predicted) turning points based on historical experience.  It is not possible to know ahead of time which set of turning points will prevail; but as the market progresses from day to day we can often identify where those likely turning levels will be; and after the fact, it becomes obvious that one particular set did call the shots, often diverging (calculated in points) from the precise price target by the number of fingers on two hands, and sometimes by the number of fingers on one hand.

Here’s the rundown of the declines for the day: the Dow Industrials, Down 166.20; the Dow Transports 140.44 (2.7%!); the Dow Composite 73.76; the S&P 500 23.20; the S&P 100 10.08; the NASDAQ Composite 68.39; the NASDAQ 100 59.56; the S&P 600 10.45; the Russell 2000 20.03; and the NYSE Composite 144.40.

The charts today show us great pictures of classic Candlestick Reversal Patterns – Bearish Engulfing Patterns, which are strong predictors of lower prices to come.  In April 2010, we spotted the Bearish Engulfing Pattern in the Dow Industrials, Transports, and Composite, and it was only a few trading days later that the Flash Crash of May 6 came along.  It was no surprise to us, nor to our Subscribers.

The Bearish Engulfing Patterns today (January 28) are not exactly pikers.  The Candlestick “Real Bodies” of today’s Daily price bar in the various Indexes did not bearishly engulf only one or two previous “Real Bodies;” rather, today’s “Real Bodies” engulfed a multitude of previous “Real Bodies”: six in the NASDAQ Composite, seven in the Dow Industrials, ten in the S&P 100, eleven in the S&P 500, six in the NASDAQ 100 (and arguably fifteen), ten in the NYSE Composite, and seventeen (!) in the Dow Composite.

We have never before seen an agglomeration of Bearish Engulfing Patterns so broadly dispersed among the Indexes and in which the Real Body of today’s price bar engulfed so many previous Real Bodies.  We think the implications of these patterns are enormously bearish, even more so than in April 2010, days before the Flash Crash.

The bottom line is that the odds are that the market has turned down in meaningful fashion.  If so, it is essential to recognize that this will not be a “correction;” rather, it will be a return of the major underlying bear trend which began in October 2007, which has a very long time yet to run.  Years, actually.

………………………

I think the chances are good that Decision Time is here.  You should be reviewing all of your holdings and decide which to keep and which to sell.  There probably will not be better selling and shorting op.tunities in our lifetimes than exist right now.

The market could run higher.  That’s a possibility.  The Candlestick reversal patterns could fail to work this time. However, the odds are against occurrences such as those.

If you own stocks which you wish to keep, then by all means consult with your professional adviser and become knowledgeable about the various “insurance” devices which are available on the market, which can be used in order to offset declines in the market value of those retained securities and also for the affirmative purpose of making mo.ney in a declining market.

1. Gold

Gold has been oversold; and as we had forecast last night, it is bouncing in a partial correction.  We expect that the correction will be relatively short-lived, but it could be spirited.  Prices within the correction ought not surpass 1379.5; certainly not 1393.  Gold’s long term trend is Down.

1. Silver

Silver is bouncing, too.  It could be a spirited advance.  Prices should not surpass $29.49, certainly not 29.85, before topping and reversing in Silver’s long term downtrend.

1. Crude Oil

We had said that Crude was oversold and that a bounce is due.  The bounce came on Friday – $3.70 worth, possibly fueled at least in part by the turmoil in Egypt and the perception of fallout therefrom.  Crude’s oversold condition has not been ameliorated by Friday’s price rise.

………………..

FOREX

EUR-USD

The Euro has turned down, as expected.  In short order, it should retrace half-way back to its recent Low of January 10; and thereafter it should take out that Low and, over time, take out 1.18.

GBP-USD

The Pound was unable to hold the 61.8% retracement level of its previous decline, and closed lower.  (I had given it a “bias toward Down”).  It is still moderately overbought, so going into Sunday night and Monday I will call it “bias toward Down.”  Longer term, the Pound will take out its Low of December 28.

AUD-USD

The AUD has been trading essentially sideways, within a broad range, for 17 days.  I don’t see a reversal pattern; so I think it probably will continue in that vein, or possibly move somewhat higher as Gold advances.

USD-CAD

The USD moved Up, and is now flirting with an overbought condition.  I give it a “sideways with a bias toward Up.”

………………….

DOW 30  (DOW INDUSTRIALS)

As before, be long-term Short this Index with “a toe in the water to the downside” in some fashion, while maintaining tight safety sell-stops on Long positions.  Some positions may already have been taken out on safety in a run to Cash.

Today, these individual stocks appear to be particularly susceptible to reversal soon:

CVX (may already have turned Down)

DIS (may already have turned Down)

HD (noted in our report for Friday; turned lower a big $1.28)

HPQ (cited in our report for Friday; turned lower a big $1.23)

IBM (highlighted in our report for Friday; turned lower $1.86)

INTC (same general observation)

PFE

TRV (again)

UTX (again)

WMT (highlighted in our report for Friday; turned lower 87 cents and remains overbought

XOM

………

JNJ fell off badly.  It is now oversold.

MRK fell off badly.  It is now oversold and is a candidate for a quick upside trade.

We missed a big selloff in MSFT.

…………………………………….

COP – continue to trail prices with a sell-stop.

X – our recommended sell-stop may already have taken out Longs on safety.  A Short is suggested.

………………………………………………………………………………………………..

DOW TRANSPORTS

(the notation at Dow 30 applies here too)

Transportation-related companies always feel the brunt of a perceived economic slowdown coming our way.

CSX did reverse, as forecasted.  It is still overbought.

FDX – $3.88 falloff.

GMT – the nice rise came to an abrupt end.  Shows the desirability of tight safety sell-stops in a quick trade.

JBLU may be a candidate for a possible quick upside trade.

KSU – same notation as at GMT.

LUV is oversold now.

NSC fell off $1.93 and is quickly approaching “oversold.”

OSG – we said it was oversold; it gained $1.95 (6%!) on Friday.

UNP – declined $1.80.  It is midrange now.

UPS declined $2.18 (3%).  Perhaps a little late to get Short now.

………………………………….

NASDAQ 100

(The notes at Dow 30 apply here too)

“Like shooting fish in a barrel” on Friday.

Today, these appear to be particularly susceptible to reversal soon:

ADBE (already started)

ADP (had been marked previously)

AMAT

EBAY

FISV – we marked it in our report for Friday; fell $1.54

FLIR (again)

ISRG (again)

KLAC (again)

MYL

NVDA (again)

PAYX – we marked it in our report for Friday (and many times previously); it fell 93 cents.  There should be more to go on the downside.

PCAR declined $1.74.  It may bounce now; but over the long term I expect that it will decline.

ROST – noted in our report for Friday.  Declined $1.53.  It is still overbought.

VRTX – highlighted in our report for last Friday.  Fell 38 cents.  There should be more to the downside.

XLNX

XRAY

…………………………………………………………

Respectfully submitted.

CandleWave, LLC

By William Kurtz, President

906 Whippoorwill Drive

Palm Harbor FL34683 USA’’

………..

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

EVERY INVESTOR MAKES HIS OR HER OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM.

THIS COMMUNICATION MAY CONTAIN INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS (WHICH DO NOT CONSTITUTE, ARE NOT INTENDED TO CONSTITUTE, AND ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS CONSTITUTING, “INVESTMENT ADVICE”), WHICH ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  IN ANY AND ALL EVENTS, THIS COMMUNICATION AND ALL OF ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS, COLLECTIVELY AND SEVERALLY, ARE SUBJECT TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS (“DISCLAIMER”) WHICH ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF THE CANDLEWAVE.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candlewave.com AND OF THE CANDELAABRA.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candelaabra.com, WHICH ARE INCORPORATED HEREIN BY REFERENCE

January 24

CandleWave – Action Suggestions for Monday, January 24, 2011

1. The Indexes

The Dow Industrials Index did reach higher, as we thought it might, to 11905.40, and then retreated, to close Up 49 points on the day.  The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher than yesterday.  Other than the Industrials, no other Index made a new High.  The S&P 400 Midcaps was weak; the NASDAQs were weak; the Transportation Index was weak; the S&P 600 SmallCaps was weak; and there is a non-confirmation as between the Industrials and the Transports, which is exactly what we expect to see at the very end of a long countertrend rally.  The Industrials may reach a little higher, but will almost certainly lose the gambit and will likely join all of the others on a downward path shortly.

The probability is that the stock market has turned Down.  We ought to be acting and planning accordingly.

1. Gold

Gold continued Down today, in line with its operative trend.  It is becoming short-term Oversold now, so we can expect a bounce soon; but Gold is headed for much lower prices.

1. Silver

Silver closed Down only 0.7.  We see a Hammer Candlestick price bar today, which suggests that prices should move up in a countertrend bounce soon, which almost certainly will not test the recent High or the ancient trendline.  Long term, Silver’s price direction is Down.  Silver is headed for much lower prices.

1. Crude Oil

Crude closed lower, as we thought it might (“I think its bias is still Down.”)  I think its bias is still Down.

………………

FOREX

EUR-USD

The Euro continues up, toward a High, which should arrive fairly soon.  We think that the Euro will reverse direction, into its long-term operative trend, which is Down.

GBP-USD

The Pound is still reaching toward a countertrend High, out of which we expect that it will reverse to the downside.

AUD-USD

The AUD has risen 38 pips, apparently anticipating Gold’s expected bounce.  The AUD will probably not surpass its High of January 11 in what we think is an upside corrective bounce of its own.

USD-CAD

The USD has given up 40 pips as of this writing.  I think its next move will be essentially sideways.

…………………..

DOW 30   (DOW INDUSTRIALS)

Be long-term Short this Index in one fashion or another, with at least a “toe in the water to the downside.”

I think the days are short to exit Long positions in this Index at prices that we will not see again for a very long time.

Longs in individual equities should maintain tight dynamic trailing safety sell-stops.

Some issues have already turned Down.  These equities appear tonight to be especially susceptible to reversal soon:

BAC

CAT

HPQ

IBM

PG

WMT

XOM

………………….

COP is still ricocheting within a narrow range.  I have no opinion tonight.

X – no opinion tonight.

……………………………

DOW TRANSPORTS

Many issues have already turned Down.

This appears prone to reversal:

CSX

…………………………..

NASDAQ 100

(notes at Dow 30 apply here, too).

These issues appear tonight to be particularly susceptible to reversal soon:

ADBE

ADP

AMAT

BIDU

CA

DTV

EBAY

ESRX

FWLT

HOLG

ILMN

ISRG  (move stop way up)

KLAC

MCHP

MXIM

MYL

NVDA

PAYX

PCAR is still trending Down.

VMED is bouncing, as we thought it would.

VRTX

WCRX

WYNN

XRAY

………………………..

Respectfully submitted.

CandleWave, LLC

By William Kurtz, President

906 Whippoorwill Drive

Palm Harbor FL 34683 USA

info@CandlesticksForBrighties.com

CandlesticksForBrighties.com

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

EVERY INVESTOR MAKES HIS OR HER OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM.

THIS COMMUNICATION MAY CONTAIN INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS (WHICH DO NOT CONSTITUTE, ARE NOT INTENDED TO CONSTITUTE, AND ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS CONSTITUTING, “INVESTMENT ADVICE”), WHICH ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  IN ANY AND ALL EVENTS, THIS COMMUNICATION AND ALL OF ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS, COLLECTIVELY AND SEVERALLY, ARE SUBJECT TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS (“DISCLAIMER”) WHICH ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF THE CANDLEWAVE.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candlewave.com AND OF THE CANDELAABRA.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candelaabra.com, WHICH ARE INCORPORATED HEREIN BY REFERENCE.

January 20

CandleWave – Action Suggestions for Thursday, January 20, 2011

1. The Indexes

Today may have marked the stock market turning point which we have been awaiting (for a very long time).  It is probable that the S&P’s and the NASDAQs turned Down; very probable that the Transports turned Down; and possible that the Dow Industrials turned Down.  There is still a breath of life remaining in the Industrials, so the DJIA may make one more stab at higher prices.  The pundits may jump on the fact that the DJIA did make a new intraday High today before it fell away; but of course they will be misinterpreting the evidence.  The picture has changed substantially from yesterday to today.  The wave patterns are now complete in all of the Indexes with the possible exception of the DJIA.

The price pattern since last Summer has been a very large one; so we will not be ready to say that it is “100% certain” that the market has turned Down until we see a drop in the DJIA below the Low of last July 2, which is nowhere in sight at the moment.  The best we can do is to work with probabilities.  Right now, the probabilities are high that all of the stock Indexes (with the possible exception of the DJIA) have made the turn.

For the record, all of these Indexes closed Down today:  The Industrials 12.60; the S&P 500 13.10; the S&P 100 4.87; the S&P 600 SmallCaps 9.37; the S&P 400 MidCaps 15.63; the NASDAQ Composite 40.49; the NASDAQ 100 25.47; and the Dow Transports 92.32.

The S&P 500 and 100 left behind perfect, bearish “Evening Star” Candlestick Reversal patterns.

We have been suggesting that, if you are Long in stocks or in the stock Indexes, that you maintain tight dynamic safety sell-stops underneath prices.  We continue to that’s a good plan.  We think that you ought to at least have a “toe in the water to the downside,” too.  Become accustomed to either getting out of Long positions and running to Cash; or, if you wish to retain individual issues or a Long interest in any stock Index, get yourself set up to “insure against” declines in their value.

This might be an appropriate analogy: the chain has pulled the roller coaster car to the top of the first big incline. The chain has just detached.  The car is now loose and is beginning that first big descent.

1. Gold

Gold did make another stab at higher prices, as we thought it might, but then backed down and closed only 2.6 higher.  It is still oversold in the short term, so it might very well try again.  It might even go to 1385-1390 before quitting.  Even so, we do think that the top is in, and that prices will soon reverse to the downside in a resumption of Gold’s underlying downtrend.

The great majority of professionals and individual investors will not understand how this could possibly happen.

1. Silver

Silver mimicked Gold today, as we thought it would.  It beat our top estimate by 9 cents or so, reaching as high as 29.49 (which was also the 76.3% retracement level of its previous decline) before falling way back and closing lower on the day.  I’m inclined to think that it will not make another stab higher before resuming its long-term downtrend.  That was a pretty strong attempt today, but it fizzled.  Silver is headed lower.  A lot lower.

1. Crude Oil

Crude closed Down 16 cents, which completes its fifth day of trading within an extremely narrow range.  Crude is still overbought.  I think the odds are that it will be trending Down, especially if Gold turns Down now.

………………

FOREX

EUR-USD

The Euro broke above its High of December 14 and closed above it, too.  It looks to me as though it is running an ABC upside correction which is nearly exhausted.  The Euro should reverse to the downside very soon.  It has a very long way to fall.

GBP-USD

I think the Pound is running an ABC upside correction too, which also appears to be near the point of exhaustion.  The Pound should peak and reverse within the next very few days, if indeed it has not already done so.

AUD-USD

The AUD nearly attained the 61.8% retracement level of its previous decline, was rejected downward, and closed only 10 pips higher for all that work.  It probably followed Gold up and then down all day.  It is oversold; and it seems to me that it should correct a little higher before resuming its downtrend; but that may be stymied if Gold turns Down now and the AUD is dragged along.

USD-CAD

Finally, the USD is bouncing out of its Low.  There is ample room for it to travel higher; and I think the bias is in that direction.

…………………..

DOW 30   (DOW INDUSTRIALS)

Be essentially long-term Short in this Index, in some fashion, with “a toe in the water to the downside.”

Longs should maintain tight safety sell-stops underneath prices.

These appear tonight to be especially prone to reversal:

BA

BAC (has already started Down)

CVX

GE

HD

HPQ

IBM – get underneath prices with a sell-stop.

JPM

PFE

PG

XOM

…………………..

COP – I’m neutral, with a bias toward Down.

X – is now more oversold; but it appears that the trend is now Down.  Longs should have been stopped out on safety days ago.

………………………..

DOW TRANSPORTS

The notes at “Dow 30” apply here, too.

This was not a good day in the Transports.  Several issues turned down hard.  I don’t like any transportation-related equities during a downtrending economy.

These appear tonight to be susceptible to reversal:

CSX, noted last night, is turning now.

FDX is turning, too.

KSU, highlighted many times in the past, turned Down today.

LSTR

NSC

UNP

……………………….

OSG is even more oversold.

………………………………………………………….

NASDAQ 100

(The notes at the Dow 30 apply here, too).

These appear tonight to be especially susceptible to reversal:

AAPL justified our skepticism; I doubt that it has finished falling.

ADBE

ADSK

ALTR

AMAT (may be too soon)

BIDU

BRCM

DISH

DTV

ESRX

EXPE has turned.

FISV

FLEX

FSLR

ILMN

ISRG

KLAC

MCHP

MRVL

MXIM

MYL

NVDA (already turned)

PAYX

PCAR – fell 75 cents; should continue to fall.

SIAL

VRTX

WCRX

XRAY

………………………………..

Respectfully submitted.

CandleWave, LLC

By William Kurtz, President

906 Whippoorwill Drive

Palm Harbor FL 34683 USA

info@CandlesticksForBrighties.com

http://www.CandlesticksForBrighties.com

……………….

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

EVERY INVESTOR MAKES HIS OR HER OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM.

THIS COMMUNICATION MAY CONTAIN INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS (WHICH DO NOT CONSTITUTE, ARE NOT INTENDED TO CONSTITUTE, AND ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS CONSTITUTING, “INVESTMENT ADVICE”), WHICH ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  IN ANY AND ALL EVENTS, THIS COMMUNICATION AND ALL OF ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS, COLLECTIVELY AND SEVERALLY, ARE SUBJECT TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS (“DISCLAIMER”) WHICH ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF THE CANDLEWAVE.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candlewave.com AND OF THE CANDELAABRA.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candelaabra.com, WHICH ARE INCORPORATED HEREIN BY REFERENCE.

January 10

CandleWave – Action Suggestions for Monday, January 10, 2011

1. The Indexes

Almost there!  The market is stretched taut and continues to fracture.  The Dow Industrials closed Down 22.54 points.  It made neither a new High nor a new Closing High, nor did the S&P 500, 100, 400, or 600 or the NYSE Composite.  The Transports made a new Closing High (by 4 points) but not a new High.  The NASDAQs made new Highs but not new Closing Highs, and left bearish reversal bars in their wake.   Upside momentum has been falling off since December 20.  Optimism and complacency remain at extremes, as shown by the low level of the VIX Index (about which we’ve written before).  Everything is setting up for a reversal, probably to occur after the Industrials break above Wednesday’s High by 20 or 30 points in one final dash.  It’s possible that the tops in the Indexes are already in.  If the Industrials fall below 11600.29, today’s Low, that would be evidence that the top is in; but that Low formed a pretty healthy Candlestick bullish bar, so prices could readily challenge today’s High.

The bottom line is that “we’re almost there.”  Next week should do it.  This is no time to be putting money on the table.  It’s time to be taking it off the table and preparing for a return of the bear.

1. Gold

I think that Gold’s High on December 7 is the highest price that we will see in Gold for many years to come.  It is clear that the downturn from the later High on January 3 is a bearish move (i.e., it occurred in five zigzag downwaves).  For the brave, Gold should immediately bounce now (if you want to chance it), in a partial retracement of its decline from January 3; but recognize the upmove as countertrend and therefore tricky to navigate.  The top of the upmove will likely represent the best shorting op.tunity that we will see for a very long time.  Years, not months.  I do not expect to see Gold prices such as these again in my lifetime.

1. Silver

It’s the same story in Silver.  It is nearly certain that we have seen the highest price for Silver.  It’s history.  The top of the bounce will likely represent the greatest op.tunity to go short in Silver that we will see from here on out – for years, not months.

1. Crude Oil

Crude did fall a little further (35 cents), as we thought it would.  The immediate trend still appears to be Down, although Crude is approaching an intermediate Low.  Our forecast is Sideways, with a slight bias toward Down.

……….

FOREX

EUR-USD

The Euro continues to decline, as we thought it would.  It has fallen below its Low of November 30, which relegates everything since then as an expired upside countertrend correction, and confirms that the underlying trend is Down.  (The reverse applies to the Dollar Index).  Even so, the Euro is coming into a Low, and we can expect a bounce now, or very soon.  To that extent, there is an upside pro.fit op.tunity for those who are of a mind to take it on; but recognize that it would be a countertrend play.  Longer term, the Euro will have its eye on $1.18 and lower.

GBP-USD

The Pound has long since confirmed its bearish underlying trend; but it has bounced since December 29 and the bounce may not be complete.  The Pound has traded essentially sideways since then.  I can’t find any particular pressure to move it in one direction or the other on Monday.

AUD-USD

The AUD has declined from a very overbought condition, but it is now coming into a Low, and we expect it to bounce very soon.  I think it will likely move up and down in general concert with Gold.

USD-CAD

The USD continues to grind out a Low, but has been unable to escape from the trough.  It is not yet at a definitive Low, so it can decline further before it settles into that Low.

……….

DOW 30  (DOW INDUSTRIALS)

Be long-term effectively Short this Index with at least “a toe in the water to the downside,” in one fashion or another.

I think that it would be well, if you are Long, to trail prices closely with a safety sell-stop.

Tonight, these appear to be particularly vulnerable to reversal:

AA

AXP

BA

BAC

CSCO

CVX (may bounce first, before turning Down again)

DIS

GE

HPQ  (be sure to trail it)

JNJ was indeed “close to a top.”  It has already turned Down.

JPM

MRK   (trail it)

MSFT  (trail it)

PFE is getting close to a top.

VZ has turned.

XOM   (trail it)

…

KO is a little oversold now, and could bounce soon.

MCD – watch for a bounce.

…..

COP has turned; may stall now; thereafter it should decline further.

X – turned Down.  We have been suggesting a tight safety sell-stop and “think Short.”  It all came into focus today.

…..

DOW TRANSPORTS

These appear susceptible to reversal:

AMR  (trail it)

CSX  (trail it)

GMT did indeed “have more to the downside.”  Still falling.

JBLU  (trail it)

KSU (trail it)

NSC  (trail it)

OSG

R

UNP gathered steam today.  Trail it.

……….

NASDAQ 100

(notations at Dow 30 apply here as well).

These appear susceptible to reversal:

AAPL

ADBE

BIDU  (trail it)

CHKP broke, as expected.

DELL turned Down.

DISH (trail it)

ERTS has started to fall.

FAST has turned Down, as expected.

GOOG  (trail it)

HOLX is beginning to turn.

INFY has turned Down (gapped Down), as expected.

JOYG may have turned.

MYL  (trail it)

NVDA (trail it)

PCAR was lower today.  May continue lower.

QCOM  (trail it)

RIMM is approaching a top.

SYMC appears to be about ready to turn Down.

WCRX  (trail it)

WYNN (trail it; put your Short thinking cap on)

XLNX appears ready to turn Down at any time.

…

CEPH is oversold.

LRCX is oversold.

……….

Respectfully submitted.

CandleWave, LLC

By William Kurtz, President

906 Whippoorwill Drive

Palm Harbor FL 34683 USA

info@CandlesticksForBrighties.com

http://www.CandlesticksForBrighties.com

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

EVERY INVESTOR MAKES HIS OR HER OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM.

THIS COMMUNICATION MAY CONTAIN IMPERSONAL INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS (WHICH DO NOT CONSTITUTE, ARE NOT INTENDED TO CONSTITUTE, AND ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS CONSTITUTING, “INVESTMENT ADVICE”), WHICH ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  IN ANY AND ALL EVENTS, THIS COMMUNICATION AND ALL OF ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS, COLLECTIVELY AND SEVERALLY, ARE SUBJECT TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS (“DISCLAIMER”) WHICH ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF THE CANDLEWAVE.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candlewave.com AND OF THE CANDELAABRA.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candelaabra.com, WHICH ARE INCORPORATED HEREIN BY REFERENCE.

December 31

CandleWave – Action Suggestions Touch-Up for Friday, December 31, 2010

1. The Indexes

The Dow Industrials closed Down 15.59; the S&P 500 Down 1.90; the NASDAQs, the NYSE Composite, and the S&P 600 SmallCaps all closed Down.  The Transports and the S&P 400 MidCaps each eked out a small gain.

It appears likely that the market is topping now.  Yes, there could be a spike on Friday in order to close out the year with a flourish, but the oxygen is nearly gone.

The Industrials and the S&P 500 displayed Candlestick “Shooting Star” bars yesterday at the top of a long price rise, which is a bearish signal, but it needs confirmation the next day by a lower Close.  That lower Close occurred today.

The market remains hugely overbought.  Optimism and investor complacency are at extreme levels, while the ice on the pond is giving way underneath investors’ skates.  All of the evidence, taken together, provides a nearly picture-book setup for a reversal.  When it happens, some people will go kicking and screaming into the night, flailing about them because they will not believe that it could happen.

I hope you are “getting your ducks in a row.”

1. Gold

It appears that, indeed, Gold was “within the price range at which it could reverse now,” having lost $7.20 per ounce today.  It had formed a “triangle,” which is the fourth wave before the fifth (and last) wave of an impulse series; and that fifth wave came to completion this morning.  My “educated guess” is that the spike is complete, and that Gold will continue Down now, in stair-step fashion.  When it falls below 1361.70, the Low of December 16, we will know for sure that it will be headed much lower from there.

1. Silver

Silver showed much the same pattern as Gold over the last several days, plus two exhaustion gaps in the Silver Trust shares.  It appears that Silver has come to a peak too, the top of the fifth and last wave having appeared this morning.  If that is so, then prices will have been thrown back by that ancient trendline once again, the “throw-over” is now complete, and prices should continue lower in stages.

1. Crude Oil

Crude has been overbought, reached for a peak, and then fell back today.  It is still overbought, and should fall back toward 85 and then 80 over time.

……………

FOREX

EUR-USD

The Euro gained ground today, which is contrary to what I think it should be doing, long term.  It bounced to the 61.8% mark of its previous small downmove, and fell back, which is good in that it shows that the bounce is probably a countertrend move and therefore that the long term bear trend remains intact.  There is still some unexpended bullish sentiment which could drive the Euro higher first.

GBP-USD

The Pound fell back slightly, but I think there is enough unexpended bullish sentiment still remaining which could drive the Pound to 1.57 or a little higher.

AUD-USD

The AUD blasted to a new High today – $1.02. Look back over my yearly charts, it appears that this is the highest comparative price, ever, for the Australian Dollar.  It is very close to topping now.  Our Indicators show that a top and a reversal are near.  When Gold turns lower, the AUD should do the same.

USD-CAD

The USD is in the process, yet again, of establishing a Low in relation to the Canadian Dollar.  Within the next few days, the USD should complete and then spring out of this Low.

.,,.,

DOW 30    (DOW INDUSTRIALS)

Be effectively long-term Short this Index, in one fashion or another.

These issues appear tonight to be particularly susceptible to a decline:

BAC

CVX

GE

HD (cited earlier; appears to have started down)

JPM

MSFT

PFE

TRV

UTX

VZ

XOM

………………

COP – same as XOM.  (longs should have tight sell-stops in place).

X -  continue to maintain a tight safety sell-stop.

…………….

NASDAQ 100

(Same notations as at Dow 30)

These issues look especially vulnerable tonight:

AAPL

ADBE

AMAT

CHKP

CTSH

FLIR

HOLX

INFY

MYL

ORCL

PCAR continues to hold up well.

XRAY

……

FSLR is slightly oversold.

VRSN is oversold.

………………….

Respectfully submitted.

CandleWave, LLC

By William Kurtz, President

906 Whippoorwill Drive

Palm Harbor FL 34683 USA

info@CandlesticksForBrighties.com

http://www.CandlesticksForBrighties.com

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

EVERY INVESTOR MAKES HIS OR HER OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM.

THIS COMMUNICATION MAY CONTAIN IMPERSONAL INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS (WHICH DO NOT CONSTITUTE, ARE NOT INTENDED TO CONSTITUTE, AND ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS CONSTITUTING, “INVESTMENT ADVICE”), WHICH ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  IN ANY AND ALL EVENTS, THIS COMMUNICATION AND ALL OF ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS, COLLECTIVELY AND SEVERALLY, ARE SUBJECT TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS (“DISCLAIMER”) WHICH ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF THE CANDLEWAVE.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candlewave.com AND OF THE CANDELAABRA.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candelaabra.com, WHICH ARE INCORPORATED HEREIN BY REFERENCE.

December 28

CandleWave – Action Suggestions for Tuesday, December 28, 2010

1. The Indexes

We did not expect much in the way of drama from the stock market today.  As of 1 PM (as this part is being written) the New York airports are closed and the Long Island Rail Road is not operating.  It will take time for these facilities to dig out of the snow and come back on line.  Undoubtedly, many participants in the stock market are away in the first place, and many more could not get to work even if they had wanted and intended to do so.  I expect that volume today will be low.

All of the Indexes which we customarily follow (except the Dow Utilities) opened lower and have declined slightly as of this writing.  The NASDAQs gapped down on opening, and have stayed down.  The broad market remains in the topping process.  The next significant move should be Down.

I must close up shop here early today.  It is now 2:30. As the day has progressed, the Indexes have been slowly making up for ground that was lost at the Opening.  It would not be surprising if most, or all, of the Indexes which we customarily follow wind up in the Plus column for the day.

Regardless:  the peaking process continues.

1. Gold

Gold is Up a dollar as of this writing.  It appears to be taking its time in completing an upside correction.  As before, the next significant move in Gold should be Down.  We will know for sure that the bear is in control when prices drop below 1361.70.

1. Silver

Silver is down 13 cents at the moment.  It appears to be in the process of completing an upside correction, similar to Gold.  There is a chance that Silver could make another run at an old trendline, which at the moment is at about 29.90.  We think that the odds are that Silver will not do that, but rather will complete this apparent upside corrective pattern and then proceed downward in concert with Gold.

1. Crude Oil

Crude closed last Thursday at 91.51, up slightly.  It is coming into overbought territory.  We expect that it will peak and then reverse within the next week, ten days at most.

…………

FOREX

EUR-USD

The Euro is slightly oversold now, and is beginning to bounce, as we thought it would.  We do not expect that it will surpass the High of December 14.  In the longer term, prices should decline to $1.18 and lower.

GBP-USD

The Pound is somewhat oversold, too, but prices may move a little lower before commencing to bounce.  Long term, the outlook is for much lower prices for the Pound.

AUD-USD

The AUD appears to be coming into a top now, from which it should reverse to the downside and an eventual casting by the wayside its Low of .9683 which was posted on December 1.

USD-CAD

The USD is midrange (not at an obvious reversal point), and is starting to trade sideways.  The probability is that trading will remain light for the next few days, and that the USD will trade essentially sideways (i.e., not violent price excursions_.

……………

DOW 30  (DOW INDUSTRIALS)

Longs should maintain tight safety sell-stops.  Be essentially long-term Short this Index, with a “toe in the water” to the downside, in one fashion or another.

Many individual stock entries within this Index are prone to reversal.  The most apparent candidates for reversal are essentially as shown in our previous report.

AA remains vulnerable.

AXP may bounce now.

BAC is overextended.

CAT, CVX, and GE are vulnerable.

INTC is slightly undervalued.

JPM is climbing toward a top.

KFT is turning down.

MSFT is fully priced.

PG and VZ are vulnerable.

…………..

COP is vulnerable to a decline.

X appears to have peaked.  Longs should have a tight safety sell-stop in place, and should have their minds open to the prospect of a Short position at any time.

…………………

DOW TRANSPORTS

ALEX and LSTR are vulnerable.

R is vulnerable.

UNP is trading sideways again, and is slightly underpriced.  It may rise a few dollars in the short term.

NASDAQ 100

(Same notations as under the Dow 30).

There is little change since our last report.

These appear particularly vulnerable today:

ADBE

AMAT

CHKP

FLIR

INFY

JOYG

XRAY remains overbought and vulnerable to a decline.

………….

EBAY is setting up for a bounce.

GILD is slightly oversold.

INTC could bounce now.

PCAR is trading sideways.  I don’t see a reversal pattern.

RIMM is slightly oversold.

……………………………

Respectfully submitted.

CandleWave, LLC

By William Kurtz, President

906 Whippoorwill Drive

Palm Harbor FL 34683 USA

info@CandlesdticksForBrighties.com

http://www.CandlesticksForBrighties.com

…………

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

EVERY INVESTOR MAKES HIS OR HER OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM.

THIS COMMUNICATION MAY CONTAIN IMPERSONAL INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS (WHICH DO NOT CONSTITUTE, ARE NOT INTENDED TO CONSTITUTE, AND ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS CONSTITUTING, “INVESTMENT ADVICE”), WHICH ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  IN ANY AND ALL EVENTS, THIS COMMUNICATION AND ALL OF ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS, COLLECTIVELY AND SEVERALLY, ARE SUBJECT TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS (“DISCLAIMER”) WHICH ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF THE CANDLEWAVE.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candlewave.com AND OF THE CANDELAABRA.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candelaabra.com, WHICH ARE INCORPORATED HEREIN BY REFERENCE.

December 23

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

EVERY INVESTOR MAKES HIS OR HER OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM.

THIS COMMUNICATION MAY CONTAIN IMPERSONAL INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS (WHICH DO NOT CONSTITUTE, ARE NOT INTENDED TO CONSTITUTE, AND ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS CONSTITUTING, “INVESTMENT ADVICE”), WHICH ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. IN ANY AND ALL EVENTS, THIS COMMUNICATION AND ALL OF ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS, COLLECTIVELY AND SEVERALLY, ARE SUBJECT TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS (“DISCLAIMER”) WHICH ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF THE CANDLEWAVE.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candlewave.com AND OF THE CANDELAABRA.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candelaabra.com, WHICH ARE INCORPORATED HEREIN BY REFERENCE.

December 22

CandleWave – Action Suggestions Touch-Up for Wednesday, December 22, 2010

1. The Indexes

The final small waves in the stock Indexes which we customarily follow continue to unfold.  This is sheer speculation now, “pushing the envelope” very hard.  It is interesting to note the time lag between the instant rush upon the opening of the market today and the delayed reaction of the VIX index, which is a measure of investor complacency.  It took an hour for options traders to come to life and join the bandwagon to higher prices.  Still, the VIX is only a shade higher than yesterday’s close, which means that investors are still hugely complacent.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re not concerned that the market might be topping; it could simply mean that they’re immobilized by the fear of making a mistake by pulling the plug.

The bottom line is that all the evidence shows that the market is very close to a major top and a reversal.

1. Gold

Gold barely moved today.  There is still sufficient unexpended bullish sentiment to drive it a little higher in what we think is an upside correction.  It did rise nearly to 1400, but then backed down.  We can’t tell whether this is the completed bounce or whether it will drive a little higher and settle down there.

1. Silver

Silver is presently just about even with yesterday’s Close.  It’s “midrange,” and could go either way tomorrow.

1. Crude Oil

………..

FOREX

EUR-USD

The Euro continued lower (and the Dollar continued higher), as we expected.  There is still ample room for them to keep on going in those directions.  We will be very interested when and if the Euro falls below 1.2969, the Low of November 30.  That would put the recent upside correction to rest, once and for all.

GBP-USD

The Pound broke below its own November 30 Low two days ago, and remains there.  It appears clear that the upside correction is overwith.  The likelihood is that the Pound will continue lower; but a few more days of decline should end in a bounce, which we think will not take out the December 14 High.

AUD-USD

The AUD rose slightly in concert with Gold, and is heading for a test of its December 14 High, which is much closer in the case of the AUD than it is in the case of the Pound.  A break of that High would pose a real problem for the bearish argument.

USD-CAD

The small remaining “unexpended bullish sentiment” was enough to push the USD higher, but it was unable to stay there; so it’s essentially flat with the CAD.  Perhaps the USD is ever so slightly overbought now, whereby it might trade sideways or with a bias toward Dow tomorrow.

………………..

DOW 30 (DOW INDUSTRIALS)

Be effectively Short this Index, in one fashion or another.

These appear to be most vulnerable to a downturn:

AA

BAC (soon)

CAT

CVX

DD

GE

HD

JPM (keep a safety sell-stop underneath it.

KFT

MMM

MRK has already been noted.

MSFT

PG

T

VZ

XOM

………….

DOW TRANSPORTS

ALEX – Longs, keep on movng your stops up.

CHRW – get a sell-stop under it.

GMT is oversold now, and could bounce.

R

UNP is now slightly oversold, and is bouncing.

……………..

DAL – we said that it could bounce, and it’s doing so.

KSU is slightly oversold.

LUV – we said that it’s oversold.  It’s bouncing now.

NASDAQ 100

Be effectively Short this Index, in one fashion or another.

These appear to be particularly vulnerable:

ADBE – get a sell-stop under it.

ADSK

AMAT – get a sell-stop under it.

AMGN

BBBY

BMC

BRCM might tack on a couple of dollars.

CA

CERN

CHKP

CTAS

FAST

GENZ – get a sell-stop under it.

HOLX

HSIC

INFY – get a sell-stop under it.

INTU – get a sell-stop under it.

JOYG (soon)

LIFE

NIHD – get a sell-stop under it.

MRVL was oversold, is bouncing, and the bounce should continue.

PAYX

PCAR – holding firm.

QCOM  (soon)

SIAL

VRTX – get a sell-stop under it.

WCRX

XRAY

…..

BIDU – we said that it was oversold, and that it could bounce.  It’s doing so.  There should be more to this.

……………………………………………………………

Respectfully submitted.

William Kurtz

For Candlewave, LLC

906 Whippoorwill Drive

Palm Harbor FL 34683 USA

info@CandlesticksForBrighties.com

http://www.CandlesticksForBrighties.com

.,.,,.,

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

EVERY INVESTOR MAKES HIS OR HER OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM.

THIS COMMUNICATION MAY CONTAIN IMPERSONAL INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS (WHICH DO NOT CONSTITUTE, ARE NOT INTENDED TO CONSTITUTE, AND ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS CONSTITUTING, “INVESTMENT ADVICE”), WHICH ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  IN ANY AND ALL EVENTS, THIS COMMUNICATION AND ALL OF ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS, COLLECTIVELY AND SEVERALLY, ARE SUBJECT TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS (“DISCLAIMER”) WHICH ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF THE CANDLEWAVE.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candlewave.com AND OF THE CANDELAABRA.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candelaabra.com, WHICH ARE INCORPORATED HEREIN BY REFERENCE.

December 20, 2010

CandleWave – Action Suggestions for Monday, December 20, 2010

1. The Indexes

The Indexes were all over the lot today.  The Dow Industrials, once again, did not beat Wednesday’s High, and closed lower than yesterday in the face of very high volume.  The S&P 500 did not make a new High, but closed slightly higher.  The NASDAQs made new Highs and new closing Highs (barely), while the NASDAQ Composite left a bearish reversal warning in its wake.  The Russell 2000 made neither a new High nor a new Closing High.  The NYSE Composite closed lower, and is far away from making a new closing High.  The S&P 400 and 600 made new Highs and new closing Highs.

It’s a fractured market.  Investor complacency and optimism are at extremes.  Investors, investment advisers, and fund managers are all overpoweringly bullish.  By some measurements, the extremes go back many decades.

We’ve spoken about the VIX Index before.  It measures investor complacency.  The lower the number, the higher the complacency.  It closed the day today at 16.11, which is as low as it was immediately before the Flash Crash; and the time before that was in May 2008, just before the start of the disastrous price decline into early March 2009.  And the time before that was in October 2007, just before the all-time High in the Dow.

All of these inputs are bearish.

The signs are unmistakable.  The market is ready to implode.

There is still a possibility that there can be some additional price “jiggles” that would drive the markets slightly higher as final small moves run to completion.  That wouldn’t change anything other than slightly delaying the arrival of the peak, assuming that it hasn’t yet arrived.

Contrary to the advice of the investment advisory herd, you should not be buying stocks now.  You should either be (1) selling or (2) hedging your financial exposure to the high probability of declining stock prices.

1. Gold

Gold is bouncing, and my Indicators say that it should bounce higher than it has, so far.  I would not be surprised to see it test the 1400 level again; but it should not top 1408.80, the High of December 14.  Unless and until that happens, we are bearish on Gold.

1. Silver

Silver is finding it hard to “let go.” My Indicators say that it probably will move a little higher before turning lower again.  If it surpasses its High of December 14, it may test the High of December 7 again.  Meanwhile, we remain bearish.

1. Crude Oil

Crude continues to trade sideways.  It is still slightly overbought, and sooner or later it will have to shed that load.  Prices could go either way on Monday.

…….

FOREX

EUR-USD

The Euro closed slightly lower today (reluctantly lower).  We cautiously say that it appears to be back on the bearish track again.  It should decline further now, with the November 30 Low as the target.  The flip side is that the Dollar Index closed above resistance at 80 again, and should continue higher.

GBP-USD

The Pound fell below its November 30 Low today, which should close the door on the upside reversal.  Even so, the November 30 Low may act as support for a bounce. The Pound is slightly oversold now.

AUD-USD

The AUD held fast today, carried no doubt by a small rally in Gold.  I have no forecast for the AUD.

USD-CAD

“Sideways with a slight bias toward Up” was too conservative.  The USD rose about 80 pips.  I have no forecast for Monday.

………..

DOW 30   (DOW INDUSTRIALS)

Be effectively Short this Index, in one fashion or another.

These appear to be especially vulnerable:

AXP should continue Down.  Good call.

CAT

CVX

DD should turn down soon.

GE should turn down soon.

HD is grossly overbought, and should turn down soon.

JPM should continue down.  Stay with it.

KFT – watch for a top.

MRK appears to have turned.

MSFT

PG is becoming overbought and vulnerable.

T

UTX

VZ is pushing the envelope.  It could implode at any time.

XOM

…………….…………………

BA may rise.

MCD – (repeat) – oversold.  Should bounce now.

COP is vulnerable.

X – Longs, continue to move up your safety sell-stop.  This has been an excellent trade.

…………………………………..

DOW TRANSPORTS

These appear to be vulnerable:

ALEX

CHRW

EXPD

GMT – if you are Short, maintain a tight safety sell-stop.

R

UNP continues to decline, very slowly.  It will soon be oversold.

UPS – Longs should maintain a tight safety sell-stop.

………..

DAL is oversold now, and could bounce.

LUV is bouncing, as we thought it might.

“““““““““““““““““““““““

NASDAQ 100

Be effectively Short in this Index, in one fashion or another.

These appear to be vulnerable to a decline:

BMC

CEPH – we said it was oversold, and to watch for a bounce.  It gained $2.13 today.

CMCSA

CTAS

FAST

FISV

HSIC is greatly overbought.

INFY – get a sell stop under it.

INTU – get a sell stop under it.

JOYG – get a sell stop under it.

LIFE

MYL

ORCL – get a sell stop under it.

PCAR is at or close to the point of reversing.  It fell 89 cents today.

SIAL

WCRX – watch for top.

XRAY

………………..

BIDU is becoming oversold, and could bounce.

MAT is oversold, and could bounce.

MRVL is oversold, and could bounce.

……………………..

Respectfully submitted.

CandleWave, LLC

By William Kurtz, President

906 Whippoorwill Drive

Palm Harbor FL 34683 USA

info@CandlesticksForBrighties.com

http://www.CandlesticksForBrighties.com

(CandlesticksForBrighties.com)

……………………….

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

EVERY INVESTOR MAKES HIS OR HER OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM.

THIS COMMUNICATION MAY CONTAIN IMPERSONAL INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS (WHICH DO NOT CONSTITUTE, ARE NOT INTENDED TO AC, AND ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS CONSTITUTING, “INVESTMENT ADVICE”), WHICH ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  IN ANY AND ALL EVENTS, THIS COMMUNICATION AND ALL OF ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS, COLLECTIVELY AND SEVERALLY, ARE SUBJECT TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS (“DISCLAIMER”) WHICH ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF THE CANDLEWAVE.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candlewave.com AND OF THE CANDELAABRA.COM WEBSITE AT http://www.candelaabra.com, WHICH ARE INCORPORATED HEREIN BY REFERENCE.